
In 2009, Airbnb was losing money on air mattresses.
By 2024, they hit $8.4B in revenue.
The difference? Came down to one overlooked signal in their data.
The truth? Most billion-dollar brands aren’t built on intuition. They’re built on data signals everyone else missed.
Here’s how 6 major brands spotted similar transformation moments:
- The 23% anomaly that changed Airbnb forever
- Why Liquid Death’s “wrong” customers were right
- The customer confusion Oatly turned into dominance
- The problem Chobani realized too late
- The digital clue Midday Squares absolutely owned
- How Farmer’s Dog turned a 71% insight into $800M
And the crazy part?
↳ These brands could have ignored the signals.
↳ They could have seen them as problems.
But they didn’t. They saw opportunity. Each discovered a hidden data pattern that changed everything.
PRO TIP: Create a “brand truth map.” Document every promise your industry makes, then map out where they consistently fall short. That gap? That’s your opportunity to build trust and relationships while others just focus on making sales. More on this in chapter 21.
What’s Luck Got To Do With It?
It works like this: smart insights = “lucky breaks.” Credit: Janis Ozolins

Lessons from Liquid Death and 5 Other Brilliant Brands
One critical point to make before I mention these 6 signals to watch for:
Biggest mistake: Thinking this applies only to Consumer Brands or Products.
Failure to apply this to financial services, technology, destination branding, experiential branding, or service-related branding will result in lost market share, competing on price, and chasing the industry.
The reason this works is simple: it is based on buyers, their shifts, and their attitudes.
Let’s dive in.

#1: The “Market Evolution” Signal
In 2009, Airbnb discovered that only 3% of early users booked their “air mattress” concept.
THE SHIFT: In contrast, 23% booked entire homes despite zero marketing.
All because Airbnb pivoted from “affordable air mattresses” to “Belong Anywhere.”
Expanded to 6.6M listings globally, achieving $8.4B in revenue in 2024.

#2: The “Audience Outgrowth” Signal
Liquid Death noticed 47% of their early adopters weren’t from their target punk rock demographic but from mainstream wellness seekers.
THE SHIFT: So they expanded from niche punk positioning to the broader “death to plastic” movement.
The result? Hit more than $260M in revenue in 2023 and a $1.4 billion valuation in 2024.

#3: The “Scale-up” Signal
Chobani learned that 78% of customers viewed them as a “health food” rather than just another “yogurt” brand.
THE SHIFT: Using this insight, Chobani evolved from a Greek yogurt specialist to a full wellness platform.
In 2024, Chobani grew to over $2 billion in annual sales holding more than 20% of the U.S. yogurt market share plus 78% of its customers viewing the brand as a health food brand.

#4: The “Competition” Signal
Oatly identified that 72% of consumers couldn’t differentiate between alt-milk brands in 2016.
THE SHIFT: They transformed from a technical ingredient supplier to a provocative category disruptor.
Oatly reported $813.47 million in 2024 with a market share of approximately 26.17%.

#5: The “Digital Transformation” Signal
Midday Squares saw 89% of their target Gen-Z audience discovering brands through social first.
THE SHIFT: Pivoted from traditional chocolate company to TikTok-first D2C brand.
The result? $30 million in revenue by December 2024, representing substantial year-over-year growth of 40-50% selling over 47 million chocolate bars cumulatively.

#6: The “Cultural Shift” Signal
Farmer’s Dog discovered that 71% of pet owners wanted human-grade food for their dogs, but only 2% had access to it.
THE SHIFT: Transformed from a niche fresh pet food startup to a mainstream subscription wellness brand.
The result? Scaled to $800M in annual revenue by 2024, doubling in size each year.

Your Next Breakthrough
The Bottom Line: Your next breakthrough is hiding in your data right now. But here’s what separates the winners from the rest:
1. They’re willing to challenge their initial assumptions
2. They obsessively observe customer behavior and micro-shifts before they become obvious
3. They act decisively when the data reveals something new
Your Billion-dollar Playbook
PRO TIP: No set of lessons from Liquid Death would be complete without an “anti-playbook.” List out everything your competitors do in their branding. Then deliberately inspect the opposite to isolate discussions, narratives, and opportunities your competitors have overlooked that you can own.
Ready to let data drive your next big move? Let’s talk.
And be sure to grab a copy of Rich Brand Poor Brand for yourself and your team.
